Climate Variability and Ecosystem Fragility: Analyzing El Niño-Induced Stress on Kerala’s Biodiversity

The current climatic projections identifying the onset of El Niño conditions present a precarious situation for the forest and wildlife ecosystems of Kerala. While El Niño is a global geophysical phenomenon, its manifestation in the Southern Peninsula often triggers atypical dry spells, disrupting the established hydrological cycles of the Western Ghats—a biodiversity hotspot. The primary concern lies in the rapid depletion of critical forest streams and natural waterholes, which act as the lifeblood for local wildlife during the dry season. This hydrological deficit forces shifts in wildlife movement patterns, as animals are compelled to migrate toward fringe areas or human-dominated landscapes in search of sustenance and water, thereby heightening the frequency of human-wildlife conflicts. Furthermore, the drying vegetation creates highly combustible fuel loads on the forest floor. In a landscape like Kerala, which experiences a fragile balance between heavy monsoon precipitation and dry seasons, such extended moisture stress significantly elevates the risk of forest fires, threatening both flora and fauna species, including those endemic to the region.