Early Monsoon Onset Amidst Extreme Heatwaves: Navigating India's Volatile Hydrological Cycle

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala by May 31, slightly ahead of the traditional onset date of June 1. While an early monsoon is generally welcomed for its potential to replenish reservoirs and kickstart the Kharif sowing season, it arrives at a time when Northwest and Central India are reeling under unprecedented heatwaves, with temperatures crossing 45-48°C in several regions. The onset of the monsoon is determined by specific meteorological criteria: rainfall consistency across designated stations in Kerala, the depth of westerly winds, and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) values. This year’s early arrival is attributed to favorable atmospheric conditions and the weakening of El Niño, transitioning toward La Niña conditions, which historically correlate with better monsoon performance in India.