El Niño and Monsoon Deficit: IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rainfall for July 2026
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for July 2026 at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to strengthening El Niño conditions. This follows a highly deficient June, raising critical concerns over agricultural output, reservoir levels, and rural distress.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for July 2026, predicting precipitation at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This projection is primarily attributed to the strengthening of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The forecast follows a highly deficient June, which recorded a staggering 40% rainfall deficit, making it the fifth-driest June since 1901.
The dual impact of a dry June and a projected below-normal July poses severe challenges to India's agricultural sector and macroeconomic stability. June and July are critical months for the sowing of kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, coarse cereals, and oilseeds. A prolonged dry spell delays sowing, reduces the cropped area, and threatens crop yields. Furthermore, depleted soil moisture and low water levels in major reservoirs across the country could trigger water scarcity, affecting both drinking water availability and irrigation capabilities in the upcoming rabi season.
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This article was curated using AI. While we strive for accuracy, please verify critical facts from official sources.